Want to take a moment, or 15 moments and talk about the NCAA tournament bubble. I'm really tired of it being a popularity contest when all it should come down to is whether you can play or not. Being a Coug fan is hard enough, (in terms of their ability to make every game an ulcer producer), but even harder when you fall off the bubble conversation after one loss out west when you have every right to be in it.
One way I've looked at it, and it seems to be getting better and better by the day for the Coug’s, is where are all the good wins for teams on the bubble. Lunardi, I feel picks way too heavy based on what ESPN says, and over the last few years he's only right on about half the bubble teams that get in. So for time’s sake to compare the Cougs let's look at 3 of the last 4 he has in (excluding Richmond because frankly I think they’re in at this point RPI 60 with a win over a Purdue team that is looking solid), a couple he has as the first four out and frankly a few that he has as "locks" (if you want to call a 10 or 11 seed a lock). I hate the RPI but for some reason everybody thinks it's valid so we'll give those numbers also.
Here is Washington State’s resume for what should matter and an RPI that maybe matters - RPI 70, 19-10 overall, GOOD WINS: UW(2, only team to beat them at home and oh ya the Arizona and UCLA team that ESPN loves so much, they've been there too), Baylor, GU --- BAD LOSSES: ASU, maybe Oregon RPI 141 (though the way they have played lately takes the sting off that)
First the team who I'm trying to figure out why they are even in the conversation - ALABAMA (don't roll tide me) RPI-86 (19-10), Good Wins: Kentucky @ home (keep in mind Kentucky is 1-6 road in SEC). BAD LOSSES: St. Peters (ya them) RPI - 125, maybe Ark & Miss. 118-83 respectively- I'm sorry I think the Cougs win that one with their wins. NEXT!
Michigan - RPI - 58, 18-12 overall in a top heavy big ten. Where is your quality win? You want to come at me with Michigan St., please....Bad Losses: Indiana RPI - 177! Northwestern RPI - 92. You still want Michigan over the Cougs - Didn't think so. NEXT!
Baylor - Personally I don't hate Baylor, but let’s look. RPI – 77 and an 18-11 record. They have two quality wins over Texas A&M RPI-30. That’s really it. LOSSES: Iowa St. RPI-129 & Oklahoma RPI-142 (see the Cougs losses above, look similar?). Oh but lastly there was the game played in Hawaii on December 23 in which the Cougs won head to head on a neutral floor 77-71 (keep in mind if they don’t hit 5 late 3’s this game was a 20 point blowout). Case Closed. NEXT!
Colorado – they have some good wins. RPI – 81 (18-12). Good Wins over Texas, Missouri, and KSTATE. Some less than impressive losses: Oklahoma, Iowa St. RPI’s 142 - 129 respectively. This is toss up….and again proves my point, would you take Michigan over Colorado or WAZZU, because Lunardi is…
Now some teams that are so called “IN”. Gonzaga, Michigan St. and well we’ll try Illinois just for fun…
Gonzaga – RPI – 68 – (22-9) 11-3 in a WCC with horrible teams at the bottom. GU’s good wins include St. Mary’s RPI -48 though I wonder how good they really are, and Baylor. Yes you played a tough schedule (SD state, KSTATE, Marquette, Illinois, Notre Dame, Oklahoma ST), did you win any of those? LOSSES: Santa Clara RPI - 163 ; San Francisco yes I know they had a decent run in the WCC but let’s be honest they are 14-13 and have an RPI of 122, if the cougs are counting ASU and Oregon, San Fran has to be in there. If that isn’t enough need I remind you of an evening in early December when the Zags were lost by 22. You get the drift. NEXT!
Michigan St. – RPI – No wait I 
first want to clarify that I don’t care who coaches you. Sorry Izzo. RPI – 43 (largely due to a SOS of 8). They are 16-12 and 9-8 in the Big 10. Who have they beaten? Ok, you beat Washington, and you may try to say you beat #13 Minnesota in late December, but I will remind you they have lost 8 of 9 and are 66 in the RPI and falling faster than mercury on the north slope, that being said they are still at 66 so by the definition we’ll count it. You squeaked by Northwestern and lost to Penn State who is somehow 59th in the RPI despite being 15-13. I don’t hate their resume, but it doesn’t scream “we deserve to be in!” Let’s move on.
Illinois – RPI – 39, the highest of any mentioned so far. I put them in with no idea who they have played; this is a random team currently holding a 10 seed in Bracketology. Their wins are somewhat impressive and include Gonzaga, Wisconsin, and North Carolina (but keep in mind this was before Roy Williams made the point guard switch and still when Carolina was on pace to be in the middle of the weak ACC, they have since found their stride led by Harrison Barnes and aggressive post play. I think now this looks good but at the time it was average). Their losses are not so impressive and include Indiana, Northwestern, and Illinois-Chicago, yes….Illinois-Chicago, the Flames, currently 7-24 overall and 2-16 in the Horizon league. That RPI since you are probably wondering is 283. I’ll stop there because I am embarrassed that I had time to look it up.
These last three are teams that are in. I don’t understand how Gonzaga is in, and the Cougs aren’t even in the conversation. Is there a team in the bunch that is listed that is heads above a team like Washington St.? Perhaps Illinois and Colorado’s wins are better; I put WAZZU third in that category. Perhaps Alabama and Michigan St. don’t have losses as bad as the Cougars; I’d even give you that. But of these teams that are “IN”, “Barely In”, and “Barely Out” I can’t find one that is better than the Cougs across the board. How can they not be in the conversation? There is zero part of me that views them as a lock, though I feel at this point we should be in, and I understand that a loss on Saturday to UCLA and a first round exit in the PAC-10 tournament would be grounds for dismissal, but with one more win from anywhere, do you have an argument to keep them out. Your thoughts…..
